The smart people at the Cook Political Report have a comprehensive analysis of the “ad metrics like sponsors, unique advertisements, and spot occurrences” and use them to take a look at potential things to come in 2014 . Their summary – in a nutshell – the Democrats are a lot more “savvy” at helping their candidates than Republicans.

We saw a lot of this last year in key races – Dem out side groups coordinating messaging efforts and timing. That also includes party committees – they can’t coordinate (and we aren’t suggesting they are) but they monitor and play off each other a lot better than Republicans do. So in a targeted race when the DCCC is places a buy for 4-weeks in Sept. and then goes dark, you can expect to see one of their outside allies jump in to fill that gap because they are monitoring what the DCCC is doing. Or vice versa. Republican campaigns never get a breather. We expect Republican ally groups – who have taken notice – will be just as effective in 2014.

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Special election up in Massachusetts to fill now Senator Ed Markey’s vacant congressional seat.  This ad is worth watching.  It’s humorous and memorable.  It’s gotten a lot of buzz already, and will probably help the candidate get some separation in crowded primary.

Thinking outside of the box – and being willing to implement some of those ideas – are necessary sometimes to break through.  Especially when people may not being pay attention.  We did a spot years ago for Delbert Hosemann in his bid for Mississippi Secretary state [LINK TO “GILBERT”].  Delbert’s spot was clever and funny – and it got a whole lot of earned media attention, including a favorable editorial cartoon.

–  Team SHC

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Here’s a must read op-ed from Gretchen Hamel at Public Notice (a SHC client) in today’s USA Today on waste in Washington and potential solutions (warning – the first three paragraphs will make your head explode):

Stop fiscal year spending orgy: Column

3 ways to bring accountability to federal agencies.

Call it “Christmas in September.” Just as children eagerly count down the days until the holiday, government contractors are counting the days until the end of the federal fiscal year on Sept. 30.

While America debates a war in Syria and the federal debt limit, government agencies are putting the final touches on a year-end spending spree. That means big paydays for those who supply information technology, computer equipment and other pricey items. But those big paydays also mean squandered taxpayer dollars as agencies rush to buy what they might not need.

The operative phrase is “spend it or lose it.” Here’s how it works: In the final weeks of the fiscal year (which runs Oct. 1 to Sept. 30) Washington bureaucrats hastily make purchases and execute contracts to burn through excess funds.  [Read the rest here]

–  Team SHC

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Two quick posts on the polling field.  The first one polls Americans’ feelings on polls.  And they don’t trust them.  http://www.nationaljournal.com/hotline-on-call/poll-americans-don-t-trust-polls-20130904

The other is from a blurb from a Wall Street Journal story looking at how more and more Americans are ditching their land lines, in favor of mobile.  This has a lot of implications on polling as we saw last year and highlighted in this story.  Worth a read, because the bottom line for campaigns is if you want accurate data it’ll cost more because you may need to call more mobile only users which is more expensive:

About 1 in 3 Households Has No Landline Phone. About one-third of U.S. households have ditched landline phones, driven by younger Americans relying on their cellphones, new Census Bureau data showed Thursday. Just under 71% of households had landlines in 2011, down from a little more than 96% 15 years ago. Cellphone ownership reached 89%, up from about 36% in 1998, the first year the survey asked about the devices. The youngest households are abandoning landlines in droves. About two-thirds of households led by people ages 15 to 29 relied only on cellphones in 2011, compared with 28% for the broader population. The Census survey reflected the increasing adoption of technology across U.S. households. It also showed some improvement in housing and community conditions, along with greater difficulty in meeting certain basic needs in some of the nation’s 118.7 million households.

Source: THE WALL STREET JOURNAL

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LCV recently went up with a $2 million buy hitting several Republicans (including one not up until 2016).   National Journal [LINK] does a broader story on why some of these groups go up early with significant resources.  Our take… some of these groups – certainly not all – go up when they have money – or motivated donors willing to spend.  The spots and the ad campaigns then serve as a marketing tool to other donors.   Major party committee’s at this point are still set up to churn through low dollar donations (as well as large donations – expect if you are Debbie Wasserman Schultz at the DNC – which like the Democrat party they represent, doesn’t appear overly concerned with massive debt) to fund operational activities and build up their war chests for election time.

Some outside groups – especially long established groups like a LCV or a NRA – have built up that institutional infrastructure as well.  The newer groups – Super PACS – have been around long enough to that while some rely on high dollar donors pretty much exclusively.  Ad campaigns, online ads, polls, etc. – all give them the ability to market their efforts… and ask for more money to keep doing more.  So its safe to say as some Super PACS and outside groups continue to compete for dollars, early – and significant – ad campaigns may be here to stay.

–  Team SHC

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